| ody"> | | | | There are a number of systems available. Some |
| Football pools systems really do work if they are | | | | are described in books available, others are |
| based on sound statistical analysis. Why do | | | | downloadable online; there are spreadsheets |
| systems work? Simply, because the performance | | | | available; there is software. There are books |
| of football teams is not in the long run random | | | | which specialise in âpermsâ and |
| â teams do in fact play broadly to form. | | | | software which also does so. So, there is quite a |
| There are two parts to solving the problem of | | | | range of choice for those who are prepared to |
| how to win the football pools. The first is the | | | | dig around. But, before you commit, check that |
| performance analysis â the designer of | | | | published results for the system are available. One |
| the system should have looked at past results of | | | | or two football pools system providers do publish |
| teams and matches, and then produced a | | | | results, and some have been know to offer free |
| mathematical model which explains the results | | | | forecast trials. |
| with a reasonable degree of accuracy. It should | | | | Remember that the whole process is based on |
| enable predictions to be made on the basis of the | | | | sound prediction of match results. To do that |
| mathematical model. | | | | (assuming that you cannot afford to regularly |
| Accuracy only needs to be slightly better than | | | | stake thousands of pounds or dollars), then, |
| random. In the football pools, a 5% margin is | | | | having bought a system, the user has to put in |
| adequate in the long run, but we would expect to | | | | work to maintain the basic data on which the |
| do much better occasionally, and win. Of course, | | | | analysis is based. There are organisations which |
| we want to win enough to cover the stakes on | | | | offer tips and there are comprehensive sets of |
| those weeks we did not win, so that it becomes | | | | match data and predictions available online (these |
| a profitable exercise. | | | | are usually subscription only). If the pools punter |
| So, the second part in the football pools problem | | | | does not want to subscribe, then several hours |
| is what we call coverage. It is not economic to | | | | work will be required to prepare each entry. A |
| cover every possible combination on a coupon of | | | | good system should be able to be applied to |
| 49 matches â there are 450 million ways | | | | other leagues - for example in Germany, Spain, |
| of lining up any eight score draw results, if there | | | | Italy and in the norther summer, to Australia. |
| are eight â there could be as few as | | | | The final important aspect is that to be successful |
| three some weeks (thankfully rarely). That is | | | | and win the football pools, then persistence is |
| where âplansâ and | | | | important â that one week that an entry |
| âpermsâ come in. | | | | is skipped may be the week that would have |
| These are ways of covering say 20 to 24 | | | | been the winner. We are, after all, working on a |
| selections on a coupon in such a way that when | | | | statistical basis. |
| there are maybe 12-15 score draw results on a | | | | In conclusion, football pools systems can work if |
| given coupon, then there is a reasonable | | | | they are well designed and properly and regularly |
| expectation of winnings if we have forecast say | | | | used (and that means not allowing oneâs |
| six or eight of those draws. Put simply, the plan | | | | views on a likely match outcome to affect the |
| may cover the 20 forecast selections in such a | | | | selections). |
| way that 25,000 possible 8 match combinations | | | | One more thing - do not forget that the football |
| are staked. This reduces the odds significantly. | | | | pools season is year-round, as Australian football |
| Some plans are illustrated at football pools plans. | | | | pools can be done during the northern summer! |